Stockrock. Appreciate your concerns. It seems to boil down to...

Stockrock. Appreciate your concerns. It seems to boil down to risk tolerance. I watched the results presentation and there were a few takeaways.

Sales were described as ‘very strong’ for Nov, Dec and Jan just gone – while Feb to date was described as ‘solid’? Of course Jan was over $4m for the first time. Maybe Feb will be just under. Still not inconceivable that the company will report $26m in BTM sales for the second half as opposed to the $16m for the first.

The US Sales boss said ‘sales are a vacuum, if you’re not there then someone else will be’. He’s looking to add another 14 staff within the next 3 months.

The Finance guy said BTM is in 160 US hospitals at present. There are some 6000 hospitals in the US comprising 220 Level 1 Trauma, 136 Burns Centres and the rest comprised of mid tier hospitals. Plenty of room to expand.

Average BTM sales per sales staff were just over 300K per annum. David Williams explained how it takes 6 months before the sales person gets off their trainer wheels and starts paying their way. So with the rapid expansion the average is being diluted by the new additions yet to get fully into gear. The average number of accounts per sales person was 4 in the latest half and the aim is to build that to 10 over time (a sales person in Sydney currently looks after 27 accounts).

When I was initially looking at the BTM half year sales figures you reproduced in your post 59834821 back on 25/2/22, I compared the figures with a calculation that assumed a new sales persons wrote $200k in their first year, $600k in their second year, $1m in their third year and $1.2m in their fourth year. Based on the growth in sales people these assumptions produced BTM Sales close to the actual results for the Dec half years of 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Sales salaries and support staff costs will rise with the increasing workforce, R&D will probably rise with studies and developments, corporate costs should begin to stabilise at now higher levels and importantly revenue should start to accelerate as the boots on the ground get their trainer wheels off, build their contacts and Covid restrictions ease. I wouldn’t be surprised if the company was even cashflow positive for the 2021/22 full year and then healthily so in 2022/23.I think the strategy is the right one. There are risks but if the product is as good as we think it is, it should prosper no matter the headwinds that Covid, war or inflation throw up.