CGF 0.54% $7.39 challenger limited

Ann: 1H20 Market Release, page-11

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    Given the circumstances, it is a strong result in terms of quarterly annuity sales growth, across all categories (see picture below).


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1975/1975884-c59f588296e68652d730f075e535095b.jpg


    Lifetime Sales, too, appear to have resumed growing in 2Q20, albeit from a lower base following the implementation of the new Age Pension means test rules on July 1st.


    In terms of operating margins, the aggregate of Product cash margin (slightly higher on previous quarter) and return on SH funds (slightly lower, unsurprisingly) also appears to have stabilised (see picture below).


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/1975/1975888-2c742fb024b3f27e969e3ba3cb517773.jpg


    As to the Investment Experience, the performance of the Life Equity portfolio continues to be sub-par; indeed, the entire +55m$ pre-tax positive contribution is coming from the reval of the Fixed Income portfolio and of Annuity liabilities.


    Overall, if we take at face value the top-end FY20 NPBT guidance of 550m$ and assume a FY20 normalised flat tax rate of 30%, the implied PE at current price is 9.83$*611m/(550m$*(1-30%)) = 15.6; that does not look unreasonable to me, in the scheme of things, if the current positive momentum in annuity sales is maintained.

 
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