This result was bad, so bad that management excluded any Q4 financial numbers in the presentation. If you exclude the initial covid outbreak Q4 numbers were the lowest since Dec 18 quarter and sharply down on what had been a bright spot in Q3.
It now seems that the green shoots in Q3 that looked to be the start of something goodwere not what they first seemed. Q3 seems to have benefited the 1.1m delayed payment from Q2 and perhaps some work was brought forward into Q3 from Q4 given thedeclines.
Escrow continues to be the one bright spot however it is a business with no moat,easily able to be replicated and negligible take rates. I feel that if ebay decided to implement its own internal escrow system or switched to an alternate provider much of the escrow growth and volumes would also fall away. As a business you never want to be in a position where you are heavily reliant on asingle customer.
How much of the deterioration in the performance was business related and how much is sector related will soon become clear once UPWK and FVRR both report soon.
*NOTE: FVRR and UPWK numbers for Apr-Jun 21 are currently using analyst estimates as actual results not yet available.
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