I gave up on new product innovation (even simple things like cheese). These are generally low margin products anyway. The bulk of profit to be made is in the Chinese market which is why I'm happy they are spending on marketing there.
If they reduce marketing it will make the EBITDA rates look high but it will be a one off sugar hit. I far prefer the inverse where they increase marketing so the EBITDA takes a big hit but then grows from that base.
Even if US and new products are ignored and only China is looked at, this is a sound investment in the current climate. Cash is around $700m so EV is around 3800m NZD (after today's rise in SP). With an expected NPAT of $120m, PE is sitting around 30. The company is likely to grow at 10 to 15% for many years to come from this base so the forward PE 5 years from now is close to 15.
I agree re the cash. I think this could become a good dividend play since it's trading at a relatively low PE. My guess is they are waiting for the law suits to be over before deciding what to do with the case.
I am not saying they hit it out the park with these results - just saying this report should represent a gradual turning point in the SP.
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