PNV 4.78% $1.99 polynovo limited

a few comments:1)...

  1. 59 Posts.
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    a few comments:

    1) https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/59710160/single
    Sojourner in this posts notes that DW has said it takes 4-6 months for sales staff to 'get up to speed'. I would love to see a breakdown of sales by sales staff duration - that would be useful to gauge if what DW said still holds, this would bode well as an indication of future sales growth.

    2) Stockrock is (reasonably) concerned about expenses moving in parallel with revenues.
    I feel PNV is waiting for a 'tipping point'. The medical profession is pretty conservative (which is appropriate) and this tends to lead to long lead times before adoption takes off. I think this lag between exposure, acceptance and adoption and eventually advocating by the relevant surgeons is what explains the growth in costs being similar to sales growth rather than a much larger growth in sales for each additional expense of sales staff. IF, PNV can reach that tipping point then sales growth will be many multiples of the expenses incurred achieving those sales. There are plenty of comments on other threads showing how through word of mouth and academic papers are rising which supports exposure. Of course patents are a wasting asset and it is important to keep this in mind. (Hence further R&D and probably patent extension strategies). shareholders have to expect mass adoption of the product prior to patent expiry to enable those massive profits to materialise.

    3) DW stock purchases. (source marketindex website)
    109-03-21Buy100,000.34 4,000
    204-03-21Buy300,000$2.40 $721,198
    327-08-20Buy500,000$2.04 $1,020,994
    430-03-20Buy100,000$1.54 $154,000
    523-03-20Buy100,000$1.40 $140,000
    617-03-20Buy100,000$1.48 $147,500
    709-03-20Buy500,000$2.10 $1,049,500
    809-03-20Buy500,000$2.10 $1,049,500
    927-02-20Buy100,000$2.21 $221,000
    1027-02-20Buy400,000$2.47 $988,150
    1127-02-20Buy100,000$2.28 $228,029
    1227-02-20Buy100,000$2.28 $228,029
    1327-02-20Buy400,000$2.47 $988,149
    1408-03-19Buy79,188$0.74 $58,203
    15

    3,379,188.00 $2.14 $7,228,252

    These are all on market trades. The average price is $2.14. David has just under 19 million shares. So increased his holding significantly at much higher prices compared with today. I suspect he will be a buyer (if he has the cash) when the window for director purchases is open after the results. Interestingly, he did not make any purchases in Aug last year. Each time he has made a purchase the shares tend to rally quite a bit and quickly (although Aug 2020 it took a month for the market to follow his lead but then shot up from $2.30ish to almost $). If he buys it will be a signal not only his confidence in the company but will be a loud signal to the market and i would suspect there will be a strong rally that may force the large short position to reduce their exposure.

    I will look to buy after results or maybe just before if the price continues to decline this week. The company is approaching a market cap of $700 but may be able to produce large profits and the risk/reward becomes increasingly attractive.

    4) i like the critical / questioning / challenging that Stockrock and others offer here. I really appreciate contrary views. It is unhelpful if there is only hope and rosy glasses and enthusiasm- I need to hear skeptics to be better informed. So even though Stockrock annoys the hell out of some other (highly informed, educated and committed PNV posters (whose posts actually put me onto PNV more than 18 months ago) I also very much wish to hear from the skeptics even when if they are repetitive (I don't read every post/thread), frustrated or annoying. The valuable contribution and insights from supporters and skeptics have helped me to make more sober decisions.

    all the best to holders
 
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