Right now they're sitting on $586m in expected liquidations over the life of the PDP's they own, with $460m on PA's. That's without anymore PDP purchases. It's equivalent to the total liquidations between 2017 and 2022. I don't know over what period or how front loaded those expected inflows are, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect liquidations of $100m/year for the next few years even if they stopped all purchasing tomorrow. Now add refi, falling collection costs, better pricing and even modest PDP purchasing and things don't really seem that bad.
The big reduction in PDPs in 2020-2021 highlights how the vintages cascade through the liquidations table.
Ann: 1H23 Results Presentation, page-19
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