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Ann: 1H23 Results Presentation, page-22

  1. 255 Posts.
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    I understand what you're saying. I don't think it mutes my point.

    The level of collections on their current book ($586m collections on $308m) is pretty standard. On page 30 of the half yearly report - you can back solve how much they expect to collect from the book.

    upload_2023-2-19_6-46-55.png
    The difference between "cash collections" and "interest income accrued" is how much of the book is amortised. Collections/amortisation is 2.02. 586/308 is 1.9 so that's around where it should be, if it's not, it should be written down. CCP has been around 2.0-2.2 for over a decade.

    My point however it they need to sustain the current level of collections, but have only $60-70m PDP purchasing capacity - just to break even given the interest burden. In your data table - PDP investment peaked in FY18, the following year (FY19) collections peaked and then declined the year after (FY20).

    If this same scenario plays out with PDP investment peaking in FY22, collections peaking FY23, and then declining in FY24 - this is not sustainable, because the company will go from breakeven to loss making.
 
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