I thought the HY result was good, especially China and other Asia, but FY guidance is relatively very ordinary. Especially when we have had a China opening up rally from the start of December that might now offset by short term SAMR worries on the off chance that there is an unexpected problem or political weirdness and China can't buy anymore - hence there is a good chance Chinese buyers were stocking up just in case. Was a good rally Friday on news that at least timing was not too bad.
The FDA outlook sounds tragic to me. Surely the market was expecting higher odds of getting something happening. We had such a rally after that news in early November - probably mixed with China pre SAMR audit and opening up buying. We have also had some buyback price support, and more to come too.
The longer term outlook looks like no IF to the USA, and the Chinese birthrate declining, local Chinese A2 milk ramping up (not the same market - but still a possible regulatory/China Inc factor - how can we allow our capitalist enemies to feed our babies, or whatever), and China business as usual with regular regulatory "binaries" to contend with.
Trading at a fc PE over 30x roughly seems rich. Even a great co like A2M has its value.
A2M Price at posting:
$6.53 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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