"FY guidance is relatively very ordinary"The language about the...

"FY guidance is relatively very ordinary"

The language about the overall environment was pessimist I'll grant you that, but maintaining double digit growth for the FY doesn't strike as ordinary under the circumstances. There is a potentially tricky transition from old to new (GB compliant) China label formula that will likely occur this FY. There is some risk of inventory write-down during the transition process as well, and all of this is factored in their guidance. They seemingly managed the EL transition very well though which is somewhat reassuring.

"The FDA outlook sounds tragic to me. Surely the market was expecting higher odds of getting something happening. "

They said themselves that the approval would be immaterial to FY23, and I am pretty sure they were clear about no sales occurring until late in the piece as well. The market hears what it wants to hear but it seems to me A2M current management has given USA IF the priority it deserves, which is fairly low given the structure of the market as a highly competitive and tariff-ridden monopoly. On balance it is better that they have a foot in the door in case they want to participate meaningfully (and if policies etc. change) but that's basically it.

RE: possible regularly actions in China affecting A2M

I would argue that even when relations with Australia were at their lowest, China did not remotely go near restrictions on milk products. And that is in Australia - by contrast in NZ where this company is from, there were no restrictions on any products that I'm aware of, and in fact an escalation of free trade cooperation. Couple that with China's heavy reliance on NZ dairy, and the partnership of A2M with Chinese state owned entities around distribution, they have more to gain from A2M's success. The China regulatory risk narrative when it comes to A2M has always been a bit of a furphy IMO. Occasionally it throws up some inconveniences (such as the approval / transition process they have to go through currently) but that's the only tangible impact thus far.