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clock Created with Sketch. 18/01/24
17:15
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Originally posted by CarlosG:
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Not really. I borrowed the extract below from another site. I believe it's from Forsyth Barr news letter or somethingBirths in China during 2023 of 9.02m were +15% ahead of our 7.86m forecast (and likely notably ahead of market expectations) . At this stage we leave our earnings forecasts for The a2 Milk Company (ATM) unchanged but increase our 2024 new birth forecasts. Under our revised industry model changes, we estimate the current share price implies ~+100 bps of China Infant Formula (IF) market share gains over the medium term, assuming ~15% EBITDA margins. We are more optimistic and forecast ~+200–250 bps of market share expansion. We continue to see the risk reward as positively skewed, particularly in light of recent constructive Kantar data and ongoing industry consolidation.2023 new births +15% ahead of our forecast We are not demographers and hence had low conviction in our 2023 new birth forecast but numerous anecdotes through 2023 suggested new births of around ~8m (or potentially lower)
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ya of course instos be making up bs overall.. the fake rumour generators.. if only there were cutthroat investigations when get even a whiff of manipulation from instos and severe financial penalties served when put out absolute trash thats way off.. might prevent them from talking nonsense.. the world would be a better place and fairer for retail.
(20min delay)