I think the overlay occurred in a single quarter (within 2H23 - but was to account for cumulative economic changes that had happened over about a year), and applied to the full loan book, a 0.5% increase to total provisions. From around 6.1% to 6.6%.
So in 1H24, if the economy has not deteriorated since 2H23, then I'd expect the loan book to get off easy - no further overlay needed (since 6.6% should be conservative enough?). I think this half actually reported a downward adjustment in provisions, saying the economic expectations have improved (unemployment and IRs). So profit would be up from that adjustment - as seen in the lower provisions this half.
For FY23 - I think it's fairer to divide that overlay by at least the halves of the year, which brings the halves to a nice round $6m and $6m profit for the 2 halves (instead of $9m and $3m, if attributing the full overlay to H2).
So I'd call it $6m, $6m and $6m NPAT for the last 3 halves. But the contributing factors varied - overlays, lower NIM, then lower provisions. So it's still a bit hard to project going forward.
MME Price at posting:
8.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
