What concerns me is that free cash flow per share is actually going backwards. And the dividend is based on a payout of 60-70% of free cash flow. So there is a real risk here of dividend being cut.
Free cash flow is +4% (to $546m in 1H24). (The +4% is what APA says is the underlying number from $525.3m in 1H23 after adjusting for timing difference last year)
But securities on issues are up +8.7% due to the 100m shares issued during the year (from 1180m at 1H23 to 1282m).
So the cash generation is not growing in line with the amount of additional securities in issue.
That means free cash per share is actually down about -4.5% year on year.
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