"Regardless of how things are going with the refinery and we will find out, it's at least 2-3 years from contributing to the bottom line and is an outgoing up to that point..as is a concentrator at MOBLAN."
You cheers too much Whisky. You’re attributing the decline in share price solely to the collapse of lithium prices,and BODs has nothing to do with it. However, you’re mistaken. The following graph demonstrates that the lack of approval for the carbonate plant significantly contributed to the deterioration of our market valuation.
1. Without carbonate approval scenario:
SYAQ's current share price is base on cash flows where SYAQ receives half of the net cash flow from NAL's concentration business for life of Mine. Assume the other half has zero net cash flows because of the CAP.
2. With carbonate approval, Concentrate only scenario:
Assume carbonate plant is ready at beginning of 2026, SYAQ starts to receive 100% of net cash flow from NAL's concentration business.
3. With carbonate approval, Concentrate + Carbonate plant scenario:
Assume carbonate plant is ready at beginning of 2026, SYAQ starts to receive net cash flows from both its Concentratebusiness and carbonate plant.
The share price, or valuation, is linear function of future cash flows. Our share price was guided by the DFS especially when it was high, which assumed that the chemical plant would be operational from 2026 (Scenario 3). However, as the PFS transitioned to a technical study and the trade-off study resulted in silence, coupled with KP’s media promotion of LOM OTA, the likelihood of the carbonate plant diminished,placing us in Scenario 1 in the graph. Consequently, our share price is not able to factor in future cashflows from either the 50% concentrate (no CAP) or the carbonate plant. The best course of action for our Board of Directors would be to expedite the approval of the carbonate plant.
The DFS and the low cost of the brownfield carbonate plant should be sufficient to approve the project, thereby enabling our future cash flows for valuation purposes. A large amount of spending and a low lithium price environment should not be obstacles to approving the carbonate plant. The Board of Directorscan secure approval first and then take small, quick steps later. It’s acceptable to take longer to get itup and running. At least our valuation wouldinclude those future cash flows with a certain level of confidence. If we apply a conservative risk factor, say 0.2, it could potentially double our current share price.
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2.8¢ |
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Mkt cap ! $288.2M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
2.7¢ | 2.8¢ | 2.5¢ | $1.262M | 47.18M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 1565349 | 2.7¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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2.8¢ | 4608485 | 30 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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5 | 1565349 | 0.027 |
20 | 4369470 | 0.026 |
26 | 9173972 | 0.025 |
23 | 9535708 | 0.024 |
22 | 10737912 | 0.023 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.028 | 4608485 | 30 |
0.029 | 9151717 | 23 |
0.030 | 15771748 | 34 |
0.031 | 2304626 | 6 |
0.032 | 3002951 | 13 |
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