"but the main driver is the collapse in the price of concentrate and the BOD does have nothing to do with that"
The current share price is the reflection of low lithium price, but the capped spodumene price in OTA and not enabling the future cash flows from carbonate plant are also playing vital role in current situation. Of course BODs shouldbe blamed for singing such OTA and delaying on carbonate plant decision.
"As I stated it will be at least 2-3 years before the refinery would have any meaningfull effect on the bottom line."I don't think we need 2-3 years to have meaningful effect. The approval of the refinery would enable two newcash flows: one from the uncapped spodumene, valued at 750M AUD, and the other from the carbonate plant, valued at 230M AUD. Market valuation is based on future cash flows, with a certain level of confidence applied.Incorporating these two additional future cash flows, valued at 3 billion AUD, would have a significant impact on the current valuation, even at very low confidence levels.
"Any current valuation is unlikely to include anything around the refinery, who knows what Carbonate prices will bein 2-3 years let alone costs."
The reason refinery not included in current valuation is because refinery has not been approved, as a result, no future cash flows are considered in current valuation.
"At the moment we are a small concentrate producer and priced accordingly IMO."
At the moment we are the biggest lithium concentrate producer in NA, half of our spodumene's price is capped at $900,we have a half built carbonate plant but not allowed to operate and MOBLAN resource. We are not fairly priced because BODs' lack of vision to get the carbonate plant approved.
SYA Price at posting:
7.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)