Brownie point for rehashing FDV management cherry picked data - Total Centrify vs Iris revenue 1Q24 vs 1Q25.
Did you check if the revenue transfer story stack up for any other duration?
3Q - 2Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify revenue down $1.2m - Iris revenue up ~$123k --> NO
2Q - 3Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify revenue down $400k - Iris revenue up ~$200k --> NO
1Q - 4Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify revenue down $300k - Iris revenue up $70k --> NO
If you believe that the transfer of revenue is happening then Iris revenue would have to go up by 60% in one quarter for 2Q25...
In my previous post I specifically compared InfoCasas and not the aggregate Iris and Centrify revenue. I find it more relevant since this business generates the lion share of both. As our ardent cheerleader @Friendsandco wrote in a post from last quarter presentation:"Infocasas proving to be a tech and operation test bed for the transaction based model that will flourish in the many months ahead.". Somehow it turned out to be the ONLY business which reported a sharp decline in revenue for the second quarter in a row.
In the last quarterly presentation we were to believe that the turnaround was already happening with "already demonstrated strong traction with lead conversion rates of 5%"...
So does the revenue transfer story stack up for InfoCasas?
1Y - 1Q24 vs 1Q25 - NO - Centrify revenue down $700k - Iris revenue up ~$82k --> No
3Q - 2Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify is down $1.2m - Iris is down as well $19k --> No
2Q - 3Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify revenue down $700k - Iris revenue up ~$16k --> No
1Q - 4Q24 vs 1Q25 - Centrify revenue down $200k - Iris revenue up $61k --> No
That's quite a shortfall.
My conclusion is that Iris 2.0 is a furphy/disaster just like the investment thesis for this stock (the next REA!), the Zameen IPO, the LATAM listing of Nasdaq, etc...
I have been highlighting FDV management deceiving (but surprisingly effective) presentation skills for the past couple of years. But I can't force blind shareholders to see.
FDV Price at posting:
28.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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