Yes I agree – as to the startingpoints for Macquarie – that amongst other factors,
- the DFS, for Goulamina’sLithium, and
- the MRE (Mineral ResourceEstimate for Morila’s gold
will no doubt be 2 such pointsfor Macquarie to value FFX for its de-merger terms with its LithiumCo. (FFL – my pseudo code I used in my previous post.).
I guess too you’ve already readthe relevant posts on the other Thread : Value of FFX once…..
As for Minetrader’s excellentpost on his Thread - – Lithium Valuation – What price…
what a mind-boggler !!
I’ll leave other posters to makeof it what they can – a far more detailed analysis than I could ever devise, orexpect most? posters to interpret.
I have reservations though, thatmost of the details in his spreadsheet - about whatever relevant NPV’sMacquarie are expected to come up with – are, rightly so, based on estimated ortheoretical criteria, and on similar type costs of future operations, etc. etc.
IMO ONLY the market thereforewill arrive at a near-term increased SP (for FFX) – pre-demerger – and probablyat a lower value than what Macquarie might PROJECT to occur, either
- AFTER some indefinite period oftime from now, or
- AT some indefinite date in thefuture
when all the other “operationalfactors involved” (my ignorant terminology) have taken or begun to take effect.
Sorry for the uneducated verbiage. I was never much good at EnglishExpression. Prefer to KISS.
As for the FFL SP de-mergervaluation – I reiterate that IMO that will be FIRST used for exchange ofshareholdings of FFX holders.
Thereafter FFX management willdetermine a price at which it will issue shares in FFL to “off-takers” and financiers, not necessarily what FFLwill pay FFX holders per share in exchange for their shares.
The initial # of FFL shares to beissued – for this latter exchange – will surely have to be the 782m current SOIby FFX.
The subsequent # of shares - to be issued to the off-takers etc. will have tobe at an SP per share sufficient to what FFL management wants to raise in cash– to pay for defined initial Capex – and for a certain period of time’s workingcapital thereafter.
e.g. if the SP for these parties to pay is say 80c/share, and FFl wants $80mfor starters, then your guess of 100m shares is spot-on.
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