FYI - FROM BBY
Research Summary
We lower our sales forecasts for Acrux Limited’s (ACR) Axiron testosterone lotion based on the latest prescription data presented to the AGM today. The data suggest that the key lead indicator, share of New to Brand Prescriptions (NBRx), may have peaked at 28% in early October, below our forecast of 32%. While we acknowledge that weekly prescription data can be volatile, we lower our final market share forecast from 32% to 28% because NBRx has been shown to be a good predictor of final market share.
We lower our DCF valuation and price target to A$4.46 (from A$5.00) in line with our lower sales forecast, and retain our STRONG BUY recommendation. We look to the grant of a US patent protecting Axiron use until 2026 as a re-rate trigger for the stock in the next 6 months.
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