In the next twelve months the most likely events are:
• Gunns summons the undertakers and the hybrids become worthless. • Gunns continues as a going concern whether or not with the pulp mill and the hybrids are redeemed for their face value of $100 in addition to the interest earned for the year.
The respective $ outcomes for an investor are from nil to $10 in the first instance and from $100 to $110 in the latter case. (There are other possible outcomes but these two are the most likely). With hybrids trading at say $33, this implies the rough chance of the former is about one in three and the latter two in three.
To Sportbet fans, Wipeout is a firm odds on favourite at about $1.45 with Longreach Flyer a $2.90 outsider.
It will be interesting to watch the betting on the hybrids leading up to Xmas.
GNS Price at posting:
18.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
