re: Ann: 2013 half year report announcement a...
I take it you have accounted for the 500,000t of shadow inventory in China, now showing up again in warehouses.
From the Economist - July 17, 2013
Stocks and prices
We forecast a global surplus of refined copper in 2013 of 135,000 tonnes. However, in a 21-m t/y market, this oversupply is still negligible. A further surplus is expected in 2014, as we forecast supply to exceed demand by nearly 170,000 tonnes that year. Reported stocks (not including metal in transit, in strategic stockpiles or in bonded warehouses in China) are estimated to have stood at around 2.7 weeks of consumption at the end of 2012. However, if the 500,000 tonnes of unreported inventory believed to have been accumulated in Chinese bonded warehouses last year is added to the equation, the global stock ratio increases to a more comfortable four weeks. Bonded stocks have been falling this year, and part of the reason is a migration to LME-registered warehouses elsewhere in Asia, which is making these stocks visible again and contributing to the doubling in LME stocks during the first six months of this year. Much of the copper in LME warehouses is held up in financing deals but the dynamics that support these trades (low interest rates, low load-out rates at warehouses and modest rents for storing metals) may come to an end in the near term.
OZL Price at posting:
$4.04 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
