A fairly reasonable discussion from Eureka (unusual), but I'm surprised by their Bloomberg's consensus numbers (out of date?).
Reuters/Thomson results identifies four brokers with today's numbers closer to what you would expect:
FY14 EBITDA=$11.4m (vs $13.7 on Bloomberg and $11-$13 LCM)
FY14 Div = 7.25c (vs 8.3c on Bloomberg)
P/E forward = 8.32 (vs 6.8 on Bloomberg)
Eureka is correct to warn that LCM is hoping its H2 2014 will provide the bulk of substantial NPAT ($9m), which remains a risk even in the best scenario. If revenues are flat, 2HY14 NPAT might not push beyond $6.5m (i.e. less than $9m FY14). So, they are hoping for higher revenue to achieve their NPAT goal.
FYI, remember that LCM's latest HY14 revenue ($67.3m) is (slightly) higher than either HY13 ($65.2m) or 2HY13 (approx $64.3m based on $129.5m FY13). The key issues are (a) any more restructuring costs and (b) will EBITDA margins improve?
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