AGO 0.00% 4.5¢ atlas iron limited

Interesting how the conversation is on the presentation and not...

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  1. 9,149 Posts.
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    Interesting how the conversation is on the presentation and not on the full year results that tell the real story.
    That build up of $110m in current payables shows just how they managed to have more cash at the end of June than the end of May. They probably didn't' bother paying anyone in June.

    The real story is net assets, being $220m, so the company is in breach of the debt covenant stating assets must be 2 times the loan. Considering the loan for $US268.1 is worth a current $A367m, not the $345m in the report, they are in a lot of trouble for whenever the loan gets called as it now can be.

    While the price of IO is up a bit, they may let it go a while, but for how long? Those net assets of $220m are very dicey at best. Mine development costs are the largest asset at $338m. Could the mines be sold for that? Absolutely no way. Remember there were 2 coal mines that recently sold for $1 each after spending $500m in developing each, the same principle would apply here if/when the IO price drops $10/t.
    From the debtors perspective, when is the best time to call the loan? Answer when the company has the most cash as they have first call on it from an administrator. That basically means that tomorrow is probably the best day to call in the debt, before they use all the cash to pay current liabilities, but if the company is smart they would have done that already and have very little cash in the kitty.

    They have $A367m of debt due in 2017 and absolutely no way of paying it, now they are in breach of the covenant that allows the debt holders to call in the loan. When do you think the best time to call it in is as the debt holders would be watching the situation carefully?

    I wont be surprised if this doesn't open at all tomorrow.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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