HZN 0.00% 18.5¢ horizon oil limited

Ann: 2016 Financial Results Presentation-HZN.AX, page-5

  1. 2,163 Posts.
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    Ive had a good chat with YKW.
    Points of interest,which are well covered in the companys announcement/presentation.
    1. PNG is the undoubted star-in-waiting."PNG base case valuations are discounted by about 85% to arrive at risked valuations". Grant Samuels valuation has a statement in it that their PNG valuation could explode in their faces at any time(my wording).Lets hope so- see below.
    2.Beibu Phase 2 had gone from "ODP plan submission in 2016,approval in 2017" to "ODP submission in (early) 2017" to a current"submission in late calendar 2016 or early 2017". Thats hopeful,a bit more so when you align another statement (which I cant find for the moment) with the last of the 3 just mentioned and which says "bids due 2nd half of CY 2016".
    Interpretation:They are probably going to the market and looking for indicative bids for just a part of the overall development(that would give the partners an idea what the full-scale development would run to and confirm that O and G companies still have greater bargaining power than the drillers)The partners might get a bit of( free ) help from the drillers onthe best methodology as they are possibly being teased a bit with only part of the ODP being put them.If I was a driller and offered a chance to put an indicative bid in for part of a publicly-known bigger package I would grab the nettle and ask to have a look at the total package and see if I could improve on it-"fresh ideas "etc.
    3. No bids yet for Hzn to secure PNG. No surprises there but its not 6/9 yet. The priorities are to do what is in the HZN guff and wait for the parties with an interest in PNG gas to move forward. Maybe Elk-Antelope wont have as much gas there as some think
    PNG will keep.Our hypothetical asset value on an unrisked basis is still over 20 cps.
    P.S. You dont have to worry that company isnt aware that certain remuneration is being scrutinised (LOL).
 
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