Your great reporting slips hand in hand with Marcus Padley's
pearl of wisdom.
'Pour yourself a cocktail -and imagine'.. SMH 8/11/17 [ABB]
In order to make money in the share market you need to focus on the
unknown and stop wasting your time on the known. Every year the top
and bottom performing stocks are not those the market predicts most
accurately,the big money is always in the stocks that the market gets most
wrong. In other words,you will not make money knowing what everyone
knows. You will not make money listening to an adviser telling you about
consensus forecasts, price to earning ratios and yields,or calculating value
based on accurate forecasts.
All this is valueless,because it is already built into the price.
The only thing that will make you money is knowing what is 'not' in the
price and that means working out what assumptions the market has got
wrong,not right,because as it turns out all the money will be made in the
stocks that the analyst get the most wrong.
Think about it. It's what everyone else doesn't know that moves a SP.
If BHP hits its forecasts it doesn't move. If it surprises it does. In which
case,to predict a SP, you have to accurately deduce or 'imagine' things
that others haven't.
There is a saying, 'if you are not on the inside you are on the outside',
suggesting that the share market is a Machiavellian plot run by the
'smart money' which is taking advantage of the 'dumb money' and
that the only people are those with illegal inside information.
I used to work with a stockbroker who would exploit this desire for an
inside edge by whispering everything on the phone like it was a secret.
But let me tell you,by the time you or I hear what purports to be inside
or illegal info,we are the bunny at the end of the chain.
As one seasoned stockbroker once said "If I'd never been told any inside
info in my life,I'd be a million dollars better off.' [Many readers would
have fallen in that black hole]
On the contrary the only 'dumb money' is invested by the people who think
that you can find stocks going up in price by looking at a spreadsheet of no's
that everybody else has got. That's pointless. Far better you go looking for
your own insights,or your own legal inside information.
Ask yourself,what industry do you work in,who do you know who is doing
well,what business are they in ? It's all out there in plain sight if you bother
to look and ask.
So what do you know? Ask yourself that. Ask around. Keep your eyes open.
You'll be amazed what you know that the share market doesn't.
One way to generate your own ideas is to stop reading,pour yourself a drink
and lie back an imagine. As an example of what you are looking for,imagine
if you can that you could go back a year and leave yourself a stock market tip
or two written on a post-it note plonked anonymously on your own trading
screen. What would it say? Two or three themes in the past year would have
delivered you a great edge. Like the 'govt will attack the banks, China will not
not drop in a hole, Resources will bottom, Amazon will kill retail sentiment,
Milk powder will continue to fire'.
Now ask, what will next years Post-it notes say? What themes and events
can you think of that will persist beyond the expectations of investors this
year. Themes and events that will surprise the market and make you or
save money. The answer is in that cocktail.Walk away from your screen,
get outside the share market zone,be the man in the moon for a moment,
look down and see what everyone else is doing and what everyone else is
missing.
***
This writer doesn't have to imagine too hard to place Nuheara in the above
category. You don't receive global recognition for doing nothing! It requires
something you do! And the accolades Nuheara team constantly receive for
achievement demonstrates creative minds -at their best.
Hm
NUH Price at posting:
6.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)