hi
@Milo7
mm tough q. there are a lot of 'what ifs'. and im also not really a fanboy of the market's behaviour marking qtr by qtr results super hard on a small cap company thats only just flexing its sales wings. it has no established sales patterns to make future assumptions from
but i agree with wicksy's comment a while back that the follow up order for 3000 asymetrical units rang poorly/dissonant vs the 10s of thousands of units EOI that were flagged back in June/July.
its left me frankly lost as to what install vs inventory unit numbers might look like.
though i always take exhibition booth eois with a huge dose of salt - to get 10% follow through on pledges on the day would be unusual in my own experiences - though a v different market i was attacking in each case.
but nonetheless - just rang oddly to my ear
and if i take that together with what he;s saying about the lack of traction to date from Saskatchewan, the aussie distributor that introduced skybridge - i get the sense that takeup is at this stage less organically 'high pull' than originally inferred beyond the natural 'early adopters'
longer term i dont really see that being too much an issue. tech's well know for a 5-10% early adopter community and 60% wait and see. ~30% are laggards.
So it could well be that over course of a year you get natural 10% adopters buying worldwide - the unis, marque building owners etc who put highest value on some 'green washing' and/or are spending other people;s money. Across even 50 countries that would be a v v handsome income stream.
but having been to the bahamas im aware of how different that carribean market is around energy vs most 1st world countries.
they often have high on-grid blackout rate so resorts etc often run their own power gen - which is v high cost - so the benefit of Ohm would be much more appealing than say here in oz where its really more of a want not a need for the most part to date because grid is generally reliable. At this stage i woudl think green washing would be the big appeal here.
I also dont know how much the Ohm distributors are getting.
So - given all that - i guess we could well be only looking at a $1-2m quarter based on all the above - and imagine costs could easily overun that with all these new bodies.
but reality is this is so much theory. its more important to focus on the considerations I raised than my spitball numbers imo. And only then to match those against what company actually reports.
I could be way way off base.
i do think the decision to put sales people down in cities to augment the distributor sales people is telling though. that suggests to me the distributors cant be trusted to push the product unassisted as yet - which would be typical - but nonetheless still informative.
(And what they said about lack of price pushback is v reminiscent of the early adopters,. You generally never hear from the people who are price sensitive - as they see price and dont contact )
but it also means that - ex Digicel - the work may only just about to begin in trying to create a longer term value proposition knowledge in each market
On the positive side though - if my speculation is right - Im sure the exec see the same v clearly and can use that as a guide to where to focus future sales rollouts.
I;ve certainly heard much of Africa and some of Europe face carribean style energy constraints. South Africa was famous for same when i was there, for eg. Also some parts of SE Asia,
And ultimately the trend to growing energy issues in 1st world countries naturally supports takeup over time in all markets
i do hope he'll drop reference to share price etc as if it represents company progress.
its a two edged sword id personally prefer they dont play with - though i guess that kind of sp re-rate its fair enough to take a victory lap or 2.
but as we've seen it can go as fast as it came - and it often only has a loose association with company fundamentals. reality was that raise was done into a major bull run in small tech. so the bidders were able to ensure they go straight into the money right away.
So - lot of words - but thats some of what i think
