Hi Sandy 68, Yes my updated spreadsheet agrees with your 1296 /...

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robert23

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20/11/18

22:43

Post #: 36579385
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Originally posted by sandy68 ↑

Let me put some thoughts here. But I'm keeping my shares, not selling a single one. Not until I start seeing abundant infant formula on shelves.

First of all, I voted "No" against the remuneration, online. I'm glad that to see "1st-strike" there, so please understand shareholders that the possibility for board spill have gone high, so they would stick to their salaries now. They have been schooled.

I had in my previous post indicated that my financial projections for lower and higher value for revenue to be 364-372, the average of that being 368. Well I'm glad to see that it was the management have reported $368.4 million. The EBIDTA margin that jumped was a good indication for management in grip with finding controlled expense. The normalised EBIDTA margin will give management an extra $11.2 million to splash on whatever expense they feel like from this 4 months revenue.

I had also estimated in my earlier post that stores in China selling A2M may remain steady at 12,000 store and this was supported by today's document. There has to be an execution plan to expand into lower tier cities, but it will come with added risk of product contamination, brand damage and product provisioning cost, and infant, I'm happy with pure online execution and limited store execution strategy.

I had also estimated that MS in China may have gone to 6% by the end of last month, like a dead-on 6%. I had factored in the effects of compounding as well. The document put out said 5.6%. Revenue growing substantially while MS at the same number makes a clear evidence of divergence, which leads me to think that the market there has more CAGR in infant formula than Goldman research crew had estimated. More on this later.

The revenue reported today keeps A2M aligned for and if all managed expenses, as they have indicated, on track for this FY with $1296 million in revenue and its conversion to $274 million in net profits with franking credits accumulating.

Share price is going to recover and quickly for this cash generating elephant.

Please do not go after me for posting this as everyone is upset today and going after each other, but I do my best to keep all of you informed.

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Hi Sandy 68,

Yes my updated spreadsheet agrees with your 1296 / 274 estimates almost to the dollar.

Although we probably have different assumptions.

If 11/11 sales were in fact triple last years I have probably undershot my estimates.

A2M Price at posting: $9.68 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Hi Sandy 68, Yes my updated spreadsheet agrees with your 1296 /...

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