Using the company's sensitivity guidance (as per recent presentations), from the FY17 EBIT base, the update implies +$16.1m EBIT in FY18 vs. FY17 (+50%), broken down by the following:
Harvest +$6.8m (from 14.1Kt to 15Kt)
Price +$12.2m (from $7.43 to $8.30 - mid point of $8.10-$8.50)
AUD - $2.8m (from $0.75 to $0.77)
The FY18 harvest is still behind the "theoretical" level of 15.8Kt, which will rise to almost 17Kt in FY19, or another $15m EBIT, all else equal.
Ann: 2018 Crop Update, page-3
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