NAN 2.80% $3.13 nanosonics limited

Ann: 2018 Full Year Results - Appendix 4E, page-61

  1. 6,513 Posts.
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    I don't find it unsettling. NAN continues to deliver in the U.S, and they appear to be getting traction in Europe so the SP growth seems justified. The changes to the distribution strategy with managed equipment services will mean less of that short term cash bump for each trophon sold, but result in much higher margins over the cycle. Update the assumptions in your spreadsheets boys and girls and it'll all make sense.

    I said a few times years ago that I queried how much GE was getting for the sales of consumables and it turns out I was right to ask. They were getting a big chunk. This won't be the case going forward so again, bigger margins.

    The concern about GE being a less motivated seller or promoter of Trophon is rubbish. Trophon is getting a is getting a big enough market share and reputation that it will sell itself as more and more sonographers expect it as the standard.

    Once you use trophon, you do not want to go back to the crappy time consuming, and less effective methods. And anyone else not using trophon will be asked why are they remaining in the dark ages.

    I've got a lot of eggs in this basket so have been watching it carefully, there are no credible alternatives threatening so NAN just needs to stay the course.

    If you wanna look at what bad execution of a good innovation in the USA looks like, look no further than Airxpanders (ASX: AXP). I diworsified a bit into that and boy did it get ugly fast. Horrible execution, lack of a coherent sales strategy, too much inventory, ramped up too quickly, sales growth stalled, ran out of money to get to breakeven and on top of that they have a noose in the form of DEBT! CEO is now gone as a result.

    The only upside is that I only dipped my toe into it (less than half a percent of my portfolio) but that deep shade of red still makes me cringe. Compare that to NAN, which is going like a dream.

    I know you and your family have probably not sold a single share and smartly averaged up at times, wish I did the same and didn't get too clever by diworsifying. Right idea to diversify, wrong stock to sell to do it with NAN. Fortunately I kept most.

    NAN is not cheap at the moment, but nor does it look expensive. A great product, great management, letting this one continue to run.
 
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