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Ann: 2019 CY Guidance, page-15

  1. 22,431 Posts.
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    IMO, the reason that Mr Market has not put upward  buying pressure on the share is because the company has not yet announced the $s/ton it actually received for both shipments and he suspects that the reason for this  is that it may have been under the $580/ton* predicred
    above. If there is an off take price agreement/ formula for calculating price for all the HMC to the Chinese customer , then the company should announce that. IMO, a spot sale would also verify pricing.
    This info will be available in the Mar Qtr because the revenue & tonnages sold will have to be disclosed and the SP should move along, IMO.

    * The CY 2019 guidance gives sales volume: 220-240K ton Average 230K ton
    & Revenue $125mil-$142 mil Average $133.5 mil which is $580/ton
    IMO, Mr Market expected mid 6s.

    The above Ann also lifts the COP from $361 mid Feb Ann. to $402.50 in the CY 2019 guidance 2 weeks later. 

    Even with these variances, the SP should have advanced beyond 20c , IMO because of increased grade/production volume.
 
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