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Ann: 2019 CY Guidance, page-5

  1. 22,557 Posts.
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    First of all, the company seems to be conservative (under promise  & over produce).
    There are a few key moving parts in the forecast tonnages:
    (a) grade...grade has improved in Jan which bodes well for later
    (b) processing quantities improving above the 20K /mo benchmark (plant is capable of 500 ton/hr which pans out at 4.38 mil ton/p/a and at 8% grade & 83% recovery rate this would produce  291 K Ton . The max forecast of 240K ton allows for 17.5% downtime which from my experience is excessive.
    (c) Grade and element mix is very important in contributing to the annual concentrate output and its value/ton
    (d) I expect that the sales revenue/ton will improve as shipments progress.There may be an opportunity to sell a spot shipment to a second party later 

    So, in summary, the company seems to be conservative on all fronts but I guess we'll have to wait & see.

    From the info available, my guesstimate is 260 K ton at a higher $/ton which ought to produce an EBITDA of $50-60 mil.
    All of this is IMO only and investors should do their own DD and consult a financial advisor before making any investment  decision.
       
 
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