First of all, the company seems to be conservative (under promise & over produce).
There are a few key moving parts in the forecast tonnages:
(a) grade...grade has improved in Jan which bodes well for later
(b) processing quantities improving above the 20K /mo benchmark (plant is capable of 500 ton/hr which pans out at 4.38 mil ton/p/a and at 8% grade & 83% recovery rate this would produce 291 K Ton . The max forecast of 240K ton allows for 17.5% downtime which from my experience is excessive.
(c) Grade and element mix is very important in contributing to the annual concentrate output and its value/ton
(d) I expect that the sales revenue/ton will improve as shipments progress.There may be an opportunity to sell a spot shipment to a second party later
So, in summary, the company seems to be conservative on all fronts but I guess we'll have to wait & see.
From the info available, my guesstimate is 260 K ton at a higher $/ton which ought to produce an EBITDA of $50-60 mil.
All of this is IMO only and investors should do their own DD and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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