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PS: Please note that the company's forecast is based on a...

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moorookamick

22,993 Posts.

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18/02/19

10:36

Post #: 37468106
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Originally posted by moorookamick: ↑

First of all, the company seems to be conservative (under promise & over produce).
There are a few key moving parts in the forecast tonnages:
(a) grade...grade has improved in Jan which bodes well for later
(b) processing quantities improving above the 20K /mo benchmark (plant is capable of 500 ton/hr which pans out at 4.38 mil ton/p/a and at 8% grade & 83% recovery rate this would produce 291 K Ton . The max forecast of 240K ton allows for 17.5% downtime which from my experience is excessive.
(c) Grade and element mix is very important in contributing to the annual concentrate output and its value/ton
(d) I expect that the sales revenue/ton will improve as shipments progress.There may be an opportunity to sell a spot shipment to a second party later

So, in summary, the company seems to be conservative on all fronts but I guess we'll have to wait & see.

From the info available, my guesstimate is 260 K ton at a higher $/ton which ought to produce an EBITDA of $50-60 mil.
All of this is IMO only and investors should do their own DD and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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PS: Please note that the company's forecast is based on a USD/AUD of 0.74. At present it is 0.71 which adds 4% extra to the bottom line.

IMA Price at posting: 17.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 8.8¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $98.74M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
9.1¢	9.4¢	8.8¢	$37.32K	408.9K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1126	8.8¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
9.3¢	3020	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1126	0.088
1	31693	0.084
1	25000	0.082
2	262500	0.080
2	20298	0.073

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.093	3020	1
0.094	129685	3
0.095	89827	1
0.100	205000	2
0.105	230709	3

Last trade - 15.38pm 16/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

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