I first took a stake in GXY when it was at around a $1 (after consolidation price). It was a punt, really it had a promising future and nothing more. At that time:
- GXY had a business case that it was over the moon about a spod price around $600
- It had cash costs around $300
- It had debt
- It had to share Mt C with GMM
- JB and SDV were simply ideas
- planned output of 137kT
- no YOP
- no investment in LPD and A40
So if we look at a $1 back then which in today value would probably be around $1.15ish we now have:
- GXY receiving a price close to $600 that they considered highly appropriate
- cash costs that are returning to be around $400
- have millions of dollars in the bank with no debt
- has full control of Mt C
- about to have substantial control of A40 - a turbo boost as soon as prices recover + their plant is modelled off MT C so they have the experience and cash to YOP it as well when necessary
- has made substantial progress with understanding and preparing JB and SDV
- output that should exceed 200kT
- YOP being bedded down with higher recoveries
- investment in LPD and A40 (and tailings being stockpiled to take advantage of LPD)
- one of the Australian producers that can survive this downturn the longest. Will come out strongest.
So which is the better $1 buy? The time I took a punt or now?
We are at the stage now where people have taken sides.Those that have stayed and accumulated will continue to do so. Those that might sell are small. The main trading left are from the shorters and the traders. Happy to let them continue doing their thing and take advantage of the buying opportunities.
I don't know when, hopefully soon. Lot's of signs are showing, but things will turn around in GXY will come out stronger.
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