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Ann: 2019 Half Year Results Presentation, page-184

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Zeeshan

7,653 Posts.

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02/09/19

21:14

Post #: 40282897
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Originally posted by asb83: ↑

So many flaws in this post.
1) You're extremely optimistic to think they will get US$577/t this half. I believe GXY is still on 6-month pricing contracts. They got US$584 last half and the CEO came out saying conditions are "very soft". They will be doing well if they can average above US$550/t this half.
2) Cash costs of US$385/t - I think you're dreaming if you think that price includes sales costs and royalties. Cash cost is closer to US$450/t.
3) "That should mean they are easily going to be cashflow positive for the coming quarter" - after you add on admin costs and Capex, I think you're dreaming if you think they will be cashflow positive this quarter/half.
4) "bottom of the lithium cycle" - I don't think we are close to the bottom. There is still a massive oversupply of lithium, the big players have plans to ramp up supply, so there's no sign of stabilisation in lithium pricing, let alone a reversal of price. The EV hype is over and exponential growth forecasts are by those in the industry with an agenda and they are being proven to be way off.
5) "share price is down to rock bottom" - the share price can still go a fair amount lower. I'm not saying it will, but it's well above cash backing and it's not really deserving of being so given it's a low margin producer with a sky-high valuation.

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2015 ....Iron Ore prices.... FMG

Same 5hit , different posters.

GXY Price at posting: $1.12 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: 2019 Half Year Results Presentation, page-184

Top Stories

Solstice Minerals to ramp up drilling campaign at Yarri Gold Project

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Buxton projects new graphite province discovery at WA Narryer play

Week 40 Wrap: China's nonsensical stimmy hype wanes (shocking!); HotCopper's picks; oil & inflation

Cokal upgrades infrastructure for BBM ramp-up in Indonesia

White Cliff jumps 24% on 'bonanza grade' copper rock chips at Rae project, Canada

Neurotech knocked back by FDA as agency declares target condition not rare enough for special status

BCI reaches close of funding facility for salt-first part of Mardie project

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

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