There was an interesting report from ABARES recently that looked at domestic aquaculture / wild harvest consumption in Australia. While there was some component related to population growth, there was also a component related to increasing consumption per capita and a shift from wild harvest to aquaculture. So overall, I reckon the 1 million people less than planned due to Covid-19 is not going to have a huge impact on total demand - particularly as there are also export potentials etc.
For example, Prawns are completely under supplied at the moment. I have struggled to get an accurate figure for today, but in 2016 the submission from the Australian Prawn Farmers Association said there was about 600hectares producing 5,500 tonnes, and now they reckon there is around 900hectares (so only Prosperine/Tassals has been added since then?). You can see their submission to the Productivity Commission Review in 2016 here for an interesting read on the regulation impediments:
https://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/197522/sub023-fisheries-aquaculture.pdfThe reason I note it is that for Coles, Woolworths, etc they need a significant supply to bring into their large supply chains. So you go to their shops or online, and all you can find is frozen/thawed prawns. Essentially, the main suppliers for Coles for instance are running vessels off the coast of WA, catching them out in the sea, freezing them on the ships and bringing them back. The main advantage of Tropico will be the potential to offer fresh prawns, and a consistent supply of fresh/frozen all year round at scale. This will open up new market opportunities for Tassals and the retailers. So at least from my perspective, the prawn saga is not about competition in the market or insufficient demand, it's about supplying the market.
