Ann: 2020 AGM Presentation, page-5

Thanks @Hopeful9,

Was there any discussion on financial forecasts? I read the production forecasts which sounded quite bullish, but nothing on the financial side.

I tried to 'reverse engineer' their numbers to estimate FY21. Based on the production and assuming similar margins for both salmon and prawns, the EBITDA would be forecast to increase from $139m to $160m (+18% yoy). To put that in perspective, based on their cash flow numbers, 44% of the growth (or $9.2m of the $21m) has already occurred in Q1 which is a great start.

What I thought was interesting was their CAPEX requirements or any future capital raisings which you also touched on. Seems like it won't be necessary, but one never knows. If the current trend continues and they have the resources to make the investments required without needing to tap the capital markets, then this could really impact on the stock price. Again, working back on the current share price ($3.70), with the growth you could expect to see $4.24 with the August 21 results. And if this is supported by an expansion in the multiples essentially dropping the yield from 5% to 4% (as we have seen with Rural Funds in the past couple of months supported by lower interest rates), then this goes up to $5.31. I still think this is overly bullish considering the timeframe, but each report is one quarter closer!