ALC 0.00% 7.3¢ alcidion group limited

Because the relevant period for the AGM is FY20, the Chairman's...

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    Because the relevant period for the AGM is FY20, the Chairman's address had to focus on the 10% revenue growth before gradually moving towards FY21, where we know revenue growth is much higher.

    On your comment on referencing % instead of contract value, I am not sure how that could be done given the TCV is spread out over a number of years and each revenue component has its own performance milestone that must be met before it can be recognised in the financial accounts.

    The presso reads fine to me. But like many posters here have alluded to, there isn't anything new that many of us are not aware of. Nevertheless, management have tried their best to provide greater visibility over some of the metrics in response to concerns that some shareholders have either raised publicly in forums such as HotCopper or privately via correspondence to the company.

    Key takeaways for me are:

    • Profitability - first time (I believe) this has been publicly stated. I still believe FY21 to be a year of accelerated revenue growth and that just maybe, profitability in FY22.
    • Revenue growth - question is how many more contracts can they win and how high can the total FY21 revenue figure be? As at 19 November 2020, Alcidion is expected to recognised $20.2M of revenues in FY21, with seven more months to go. Management has repeatedly stated that they expect accelerated revenue growth for 2HFY21
    • Operating leverage - cost base expected to stabilise at 1HFY21 levels. In my view, the key revenue threshold is around $30M. Once revenue exceeds this figure (assuming all else being equal), operating leverage will kick in and the majority of any new revenues will flow straight down to the bottom line. To be sure, Alcidion has a highly scale-able business model and is easily capable of generating sales in the several tens of millions of dollars with just a few NHS contracts.
    • Regulatory tailwinds - still intact and accelerating. Traction in key markets such as NZ (Simpson Review) and UK (Digital Aspirant program). Important to note that for some such as the latter, the funding is there - £28M in the first year and further funding to be provided over the next four years.
    • Progress on GP and community system - interesting developments taking place in this space. For context:

    Key players from the NHS, big tech and pharmaceutical companies have been in discussions over the potential to commercialise 65 million NHS medical records, valued at up to £10B a year. Plans are for a “single, standardised, event-based, longitudinal patient record” pulled together from GPs, hospitals, mental health professionals, demographics registers, prescription records as well as information from the private health sector, with the aim of improving improve outcomes for clinical trials, drug discovery and medical technology.

    • Growth strategy - Alcidion's success in the short to medium term will continue to be heavily reliant on the UK market. Current growth strategy in that market of focusing on early adopters and digital exemplars to establish reference sites and leveraging off the NHSX Clinical Communications Procurement Framework makes sense to me.
    • Near term catalysts - Management noted the strong potential to expand scope of initial customer contracts signed in Australian market. My guess is that there have been discussions with some health districts in NSW in particular. Also, do not discount the potential for some catalysts from NZ. Remote patient monitoring will also will also be increasingly be a new market.

    Separately, my understanding is that there have been some movements in the share register:

    • Cyan Investment has increased its holdings
    • Two nominees (Citicorp and JP Morgan) have also been buying. Question is for whom? Also, I wouldn't be surprised if they are not behind the repeatedly 1 share after market trade (as have yet happened again today!)
    • Donald K has sold down some of his holdings via (presumably) an arranged trade with Kate
    • Found of Patientrack (Michael Buist) has sold down some of this holdings. Good on him, he deserves a nice payoff.
    • Many retail investors in the top50 have been topping up. Quite a few are on the HotCopper forum I wager.
 
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