Hey stevo, the tech is hear to stay and is getting better each year. Manufacturers are approximately 10% away from $100/kwh battery packs, though production method efficiencies will need to lower prices to that level, as battery material prices need to increase, otherwise no batteries.
Reading CATL's 1H20 results, their ESS revenues increased 136% y-o-y, similar results for other established providers in same space. I believe analyst are underestimating demand from ESS, the batteries are getting bigger and 80% of grid scale deployments are lithium-ion tech.
It's interesting, back in late 2018, many of the industry experts were very critical of the oz spod producers flooding the market, Chris Berry described the oz producers as the "pig in the python". Well, there is no doubt the oz producers have caused a lot pain over the past 2 years, however, they have gained market share while putting a lid on new projects and expansion plans, thus are positioned well for the next leg of demand. However, the tune of the experts has changed from criticisms to panic, where all can see a structural deficit as early as 2023, and therefore, the risk's that posses further down the supply chain, particularly the OEM's. Excluding Tesla, I'm not sure why majority of OEM's haven't identified and mitigated those risk's - do they wan't a slower EV uptake, do they wan't to distance themselves from being associated with a mine, just no idea.
Anyways, I have attached a link to a great linked-in piece from Gerrit Fuelling, who presents a business model the OEM's should/could adopt, you can feel the urgency in what he has put forward;
(20min delay)