Ann: 2020 Annual Meeting presentation (including Outlook), page-85

Fair enough, though the distinction between retail and corporate daigou seems quite important here. I think all of the company's forecasts have completely written off retail daigou until some relaxation of travel restrictions.

However, I am less convinced of your points applying equally to corporate daigou. Flights have been more or less limited all year, but the logistics issue did not arise until August - suggesting that freight was still viable prior to that point.

Also, there are some reasons to suspect that the few corporate daigou with whom A2 work might benefit from having this monopoly on the channel now (i.e. better wholesale prices, relatively lower freight costs due to scale, end-point customers willing to pay slightly higher prices due to strong demand in China). Not saying that these are necessarily all the case, but just possibilities I'm putting out there. I agree about the need to be cautious but I'm more inclined to believe that guidance will be met, once contributions of all market segments are factored in.