If you look at my posting history you will see I have a long...

If you look at my posting history you will see I have a long term interest in FLN, but I currently don’t hold it.
I think the last 6 months have been predictable. The missed revenue due to a late enterprise $1m payment, the great quarter when that payment fell into the results, the missed quarter when the growth was OK, but lack of a similar $1m lump made the results look below average.

The question for me is now where the next quarter lands.
I suspect it will be better than expected. PEople rate this business on 12 week cycles, but the underlying business is much more in tune with multi-year employment figures or other cyclical economic cycles.

I suspect that UPWK and FVRR are well overvalued, and will face a drop at some point that will be brutal.
It might be this quarter as people in the northern hemisphere have largely returned to normal work, with less need for gigs. Maybe not, maybe in half a year yet. When that happens, FLN will probably sink in sympathy, but the consistent decade plus results will limit the damage.

It was a poor strategic move from Matt not to use the pandemic to boost the share price to the moon, like the UPWK and FVRR management did, via extravagant per click marketing etc. He could have used that equity to buy into something big. But it didn’t happen.

So we are back at valuations from a few years ago. I made good money selling on the way up, but admittedly not at the top.

So I’ll ask other investors - would you buy more at these prices? I think the business is valuable and growing long term. But I see risk that overvalued peers will fall to earth and drag it down.