After reading the latest news articles, I too think it's likely the SP will get smashed. The variant is a far larger concern that I had initially thought.
How low it goes largely depends on how effective current vaccines are against the latest variant.
If they are ineffective against the latest strain, we will be back to lockdowns. UK has already started quarantine until a negative test is confirmed after arrival - this alone will dampen travel hugely.
I am thinking the downtrend will last until a booster capable of fighting the virus is distributed widely so worst case around 3 to 6 months and the SP could get into the mid teens again.
There is a chance the vaccines are like half effective against the virus in which case maybe quarantine requirements will be relaxed so things may not get too bad.
Ann: 2021 AGM Chairman's Address and MD Presentation, page-19
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