Personally I'm using the underlying NPAT to get a good sense of what the business is generating outside of one-offs and growth plans.
That was 430m$ for the half which is 860m$ annualized => 8.14 PE ratio at current prices.
That's just current operations at already outdated prices.
On top of that there's several positive factors looking forward IMO.
- Current IO prices are much higher than the average for the 1H21.
- Wodgina sitting idle which is essentially a PLS equivalent (3bn$). 40% ownership of a 3b$ valuation gives it a 1.2bn$ value. Apply discounts for minority ownership and non-operating plant.
- Kemerton being constructed, another 40% ownership not reflected in earnings despite being free-carried.
- Lithium prices on the leg up.
- Strong growth pipeline with the IO and Mining services division.
- CE at the helm which is a biggie for me.
The biggest downside is the dependency on relatively high IO prices due to higher costs per tons than say FMG and BHP.
All in all this seems fairly valued to mid-undervalued to me, balancing both risks and potential forward growth.
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