"its ok to disagree don’t take it personally. it’s healthy to understand the downside in a position. But of course you would know this. Let’s not get into whether I think financial advisors add value. or what happened in March. Easy with hindsight. Hunches? experience ?"No hindsight required, and no hunches required. When you have an investment process you don't need to rely on "predicting".
Add value through your process, remove the emotion. If you don't want to allocate to EM because it's too scary for you, then don't. But let me assure you that asset allocators don't think like this. What does the risk and reward look like? How's our international allocation looking? Not as simple as "Im staying away from EM".
"Just to be sure you have a model which assumes no negative flows, no dilution, no appreciation of the aud, fee margin increases and double digit returns over the next 3 years. You have a price target twice consensus! Hunches^^Of course it’s hunches if it was a sure thing it wouldn’t be trading where it is."
I'm not a quant, and I'm not a sell side analyst. My spreadsheet was a simple analysis to share on HC. Nothing more. What's the first rule of building a model? The more complicated the model the more likely it is to be wrong. Why would I adjust different months for different flow levels and Different AUD/USD levels? Pick a point in time, build a linear model, that will give you a basic approximation. Everything else in-between is noise to the end point.
My target is twice consensus? Yes of course it is. Are broker targets 12 month targets or 3 year targets? Was my simple model looking at 12 months or 3 years? Not sure maybe you can school us on that again. My 12 month models look pretty close to me.
"This isn’t a science. There is a reason the market has it at $1.40 and it’s not Fox News( who watches Fox News in Australia?) of lack of broker coverage ( there are two plus at least 4 funds managers) It’s because the market is pricing in risk.I hope you’re right though! Good luck"
Well that's pretty obvious, there is uncertainty about whether GQG will reach that FUM level, increase or holds is average management margin, etc.
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