Just don't miss out when these measures are removed and it...

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TheAnalyst007

14,637 Posts.

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17/02/21

09:35

Post #: 51062510
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Originally posted by Bwatson: ↑

The ban only affected one month of the half... This is not the true ex-china results.

EBITS will be below 200 and probably in the 180-200 range for the second half based on this guidance. This will put EPS around the 12/13c average before we factor in how well they can increase volume excess to outside of China sales. Let's say 25cps full year earnings. That's 39 P/E.

Fact is TWE P/E is so high on the China Growth Story, just look at the dominance of Asia and China on this result..

I'm just not sure where the growth to support the crazily high P/E will come from? I think I'll watch for next result, but I'm strongly considering cutting my losses and getting out of this unless they can somehow get some insane sales going into Vietnam/Japan. China is 63% of Asia sales, that's no easy replacement, especially when our China margin were always extra fatty compared to ANZ and Americas.

Not sure how other holders see this as a great result. This is only representative of 1 month China impact, which much worse to come. Expect a writedown on the Brand values too seeing the drastically lower Earnings expected in the full year. The auditors will ask for impairments on intangibles to sign it off. Brands given value of 1.3B, most of it is preserved, but expect a 10-20% writedown.

DYOR but I'm a bit worried by their guidance.

Dividends IMO are a false flag, not a sign of confidence, plenty of companies give fat/unsustainable dividends months before running into trouble.

Yours Truly, Your fellow long suffering TWE Shareholder.

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Just don't miss out when these measures are removed and it quickly returns to pre-MOFCOM levels. I am confident tensions will cool, hence why I purchased. However, I know that I cannot expect this to be the case. It's all speculation right now.

TWE Price at posting: $9.90 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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