Re page 6.- Ive been trying to get my head around how much of this revenue could be WBTs. This is really important as we try to understand future revenue potential and hence potential sp trajectory.
In Q &A time at the semi conductor conference yesterday held by Stocks Down Under ( Pitt St Research) Coby was asked to compare us to MRAM.
In refencing this slide CH stated he believes that ReRAM will take much more than the 33% of the emerging NVM market.
His Reason :
The Emerging NVM technology is basically MRAM and ReRAM.
But MRAM is much more complex than ReRAM to manufacture.... and added costs are 30-40%
AND they (WBT) are hearing from more and more fabs and customers - that there are a lot of issues with MRAM because its magnetic...hence Tier 1 fabs are telling us "we want ReRam"
Marc Kennis asked Coby to clarify this slide as he believes this revenue growth ( and who the revenue is going to ) is not well understood by the market ie This revenue is to the IP providers entirely (ie doesnt include fabrication revenues).
CH responded in relation to how these numbers were derived:"Yole estimated how many memories will be embedded in how many chips and in which geometries....and made an estimation of what the IP revenue will be ....so basically 1bn will be between TSMC, Weebit and whoever else supplies ReRAM."
Now if we started looking at this as the pie available to be sliced, and assuming ReRAM takes say 50% or more not 33% (refer Cobys comments quoted above), then the question becomes, so how much of that will WBT take over time? 10%? 20%? 30%? 50%??Hmmmm..... These guys arent thinking second place to TSMC thats for sure...
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