Well I'm an addict and did a bit more analysis.Take us back to...

Well I'm an addict and did a bit more analysis.

Take us back to 2019 FY, the presentation states base case metal detection sales of $120-130m



Today 2023 FY outlook shows metal detection sales annualised at $150m-$160m (+$30m since 2019)

So if we are using this on a like for like basis, management guidance for expected sales have grown by $30m which is a healthy growth rate.

The issue is there was significant outperformance in previous years, combined with an even larger outperformance during covid due to added demand, leading to an earnings and share price bubble, that all got popped just to revert back to the mean. To back that up 3 years ago SP was the same as today.

So apart from the obvious things the biggest takeaway for me is that Communications is now the majority of Codan earnings ahead of Metal Detection by about a 55/45 split.

While the earnings downgrade hurts the E it should benefit the P as the quality and growth profile of Codan is now weighted towards the stronger division going forward.

So if we get something like $55m in NPAT at a still cheap 13 Forward P/E we would be getting one division possibly and speculatively at the bottom of it's cycle (very hard to say) and another division with a quality growth trajectory.

Plenty of risk, possibly some reward.