Hi
@pastperformerAgree the market is definitely due another downturn, but will it be the last in the current Bear Market? Hopefully, yes. Rajiv Jain outlines his thought in this article here:
https://themarket.ch/interview/rajiv-jain-gqg-are-you-bullish-on-china-then-buy-brazil-ld.8396Also in this AFR article:
Also Cam Harvey's inverted yield curve is flagging economic concerns too, here it is explained recently in a bit of detail:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/inverted-yield-curve-is-very-bad-news-time-to-end-this-campbell-harvey~2577984The inverted yield curve means short term rates are higher than long term rates. Continued inflation will increase short term rates further. Central Banks have a history of overshooting in both directions, so this time shouldn't be any different. This will lead to an economic impact of some sort.
Cam Harvey is saying that there is a potential this is a false alarm, however it is typically a very accurate predictor. Here is another article from January (it is behind a paywall):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/pioneering-yield-curve-economist-sees-us-able-to-dodge-recessionWhile Cam Harvey doesn't have an investment strategy to mitigate the risk of recession, Rajiv Jain's approach to invest in non-tech stocks is looking like another winner in 2023. Jain pointed out in the The Market article that investments in Brazil have returned 60% of invested capital in dividends for the last year and under the Lula Government in Brazil, stocks have historically done very well.
To your point
@Navb, it seems a no brainer to invest given high yield and GQG will benefit from any market upturn. Question is, how much of an investment return does an investor want (i.e. will it go down further from here?).
Best of Luck
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