Ann: 2022 Half Year Investor Presentation, page-53

I am a long term holder of this stock and like all holders and the board disappointed by its performance in the last few years. I hardly ever post or read the sentiments of this forum because they mostly lack analysis.
So here's my contribution:

Debt is not a problem

Should the company decide to sell its Salisbury CDMO facility it should generate enough cash to be almost debt free. Why? last half CDMO revenue A$17.6m growing at over 20% so assuming A$38m for FY22 and similar profit ratio to Metrics 58%, that's A$22m EBITDA and if sold at multiples of 15 that's A$330m. company debt is A$385m. This does no include any benefits from international sales.

Metrics value is not recognised

Enough slides in this last presentation and past presentations point to the evidence. last half profit A$24.7 so assuming a 13% growth, let's say A$53m EBITDA for Fy 22 if sold for 15x earnings that's A$800m.
Total market cap with shares @22c is just over 400m.

Dermatology Go to market is going under the radar

Partnership with many dermatology companies is going to deliver additional value.
Absorica launched September 21 probably only had a contribution of A$5m for the 1hy22 but the slides show it had captured by February 39% market share in the US$140m IQVIA so that alone should be an additional contribution of A$40m in the second half and say A$ 80m inFY23. Additionally multiple other products have been added between Nov21 Feb22 with IQVIA ofUS$480m, so assuming just a 10% gain in market share for 2hFy22 for the last 4 months should deliver and additional A$20m and possibly over 100m in Fy23.

Branded Products
Nextellis, Tolsura Soltamox sales are very slow but will start to pick up as access to physicians and direct consumer marketing begins. Not expecting great things in second half significant contribution in FY23.

Generics

Expect further erosion in the second half and possibly total sales of only A$100m in FY23.

let's not forget Nuvaring

Still an IQVIA market of over US$600m. will probably be approved shortly (recently approved in Canada). could potentially add 100m in Fy23.

In summary forecasting sales of A$450m for FY22 and between A$600m and 700m in Fy 23

I am sure that some will disagree with my calculations but I think this company is about to turn the corner