Ann: 2022 Interim Report, page-74

You win when you buy fair priced stock. Failure to do so exposes you to brutal longer falls in volatile markets. Waiting for years to catch up on price will cut deeply. I survived the GFC but what I c now is worse as there are scary issues on multiple fronts.

The world has never been so full of geopolitical challenges. The move away from democratic principles in corrupt ultra populist, ultra nationalistic democracies should cause fear. The abundant propaganda and misinformation by all sides. The empowerment of the ignorant and less intelligent over science and intellectual rigor . The clash of large nuclear powers. The very real prospect of another vaccine resistant covid variant. This would destroy economies run dry from overcstimulation.

Then you have the macro economic problems. Our stockmarket is sadly totally subject to what happens in the US and China. The US is racing against time hoping the highest inflation in forty years does not cool consumer spending. The only thing hopeful still. Can the US cool its economy via rate hikes without causing a recession as it has never been able to do this historically. After inflation due to supply issues drops next year will we have deflation in the US or stagflation. Even economic Nobel laureates are stymied with the new issues. The US stockmarket unlike ours is in a super bubble without doubt.

I am also aware of the impact of ETF''s. A phenomena that did not exist in the last global recession. This means everything goes down at the same time when these are sold off in a panic regardless of quality. It would take the phenomenal growth in profits for a company to withstand this.

Buy a good business at good prices . Low debt companies . Companies with a moat that is barriers for entry are cream of the crop. Accumulate at opportune times. Investing for the long term will then be a safeguard but be careful if u r within ten years of retirement or could face financial shocks. Risk management this.

Very few of us can buy bargain basement stock like Buffett.