There is a genuine distinction between investment and...

There is a genuine distinction between investment and speculation, buying a company at a deep discount to liquidation value and in the process of liquidation is a very certain investment.

At the other end of the spectrum buying a deep out of the money call option in Tesla which expires next week because you think the price is going up for sure and feel the FOMO is dumb speculation.

That kind of behaviour has paid off in recent years but over the long term it does not.

My investment in PTM of 50,000 is speculative in that in some realistic scenarios it could end up worth much less than $1.7 which I paid. The upside depends on a future that by definition most people don't expect so it's just whether or not my guess is better than theirs.

This kind of speculation is necessary in financial markets.

PTM is a better bet here and now at a lower price than a few years ago and with the value cycle more extended, though it may get more extended and PTM shuts down like Julian Robertson's fund did in 2000.

It may be making missteps as evidence by the early China focus and problems in the biotechnology fund.

What normally happens is that people call me a gambler when I take a position and after they call me lucky. Sometimes I get the timing wrong but I would miss on the fundamentals about 1/30 even when takimg positions where every one would call me crazy.