I have no special insight but I agree the T/O probability is high.Lots of reasons point towards this which we all know, such as:* price - cheap once you ignore FY24 and look to the next cycle (bond market suggests interest rate cuts already coming)* strong B/S - net cash (conveniently omitted in Ords calc)* strong biz model - PK did the turnaround a decade ago and it is now a capital-light biz in easy store roll-out mode (women wanting gifts & nice-smelling things is not a fad! )* good opportunity for international growth - easy model to roll-out à la LOV and no country has a dominant candle maker, the absence of ambition has turned fundies away but private guys would see this opportunity* weak register - incredibly loose register, mainly retail folk, no SC fundies and even backers appear disinterested (Blundy sold down LOV at IPO but maintained a strong interest whereas here he has been AWOL, Catalyst have jumped completely & not sure why Trent still there)* lack of mgt skin in the game - following on from above, exec mgt hold minimal shares and so are easily persuadable by PE in exchange for keeping their jobs* private market is strong (T/Os happening every week)Arguments against low-ball T/O* T/O price below $2 IPO price looks iffy - granted brokers have no shame (could argue changed macro environment blah blah) but anything below $2 indicates that they overvalued the stock at IPO.
Anything I missed?Re BBs, I am not against BBs but not really in favour either.Ultimately the price will rise when the market gets a clearer view of future EPS and thus divis (assuming still listed of course).IMO BBs waste f/cs and due to ASX price/volume restrictions they actually take a long time to play out - BBs are never the immediate sugar hit people expect.
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Last
69.5¢ |
Change
-0.015(2.11%) |
Mkt cap ! $43.27M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
70.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 68.5¢ | $39.35K | 56.60K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 17019 | 69.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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71.0¢ | 54277 | 2 |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 17019 | 0.695 |
2 | 4294 | 0.690 |
1 | 11961 | 0.685 |
4 | 8120 | 0.680 |
3 | 36406 | 0.670 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.710 | 54277 | 2 |
0.715 | 5000 | 1 |
0.720 | 9763 | 2 |
0.740 | 978 | 1 |
0.750 | 22751 | 4 |
Last trade - 15.54pm 29/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
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Change
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Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
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Last updated 15.54pm 29/05/2024 ? |
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